Net profit of 19 listed banks is likely to decline by 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) for the quarter ended March (Q4FY25) mainly due to pressure on net interest margins (NIM) as a result of rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), according to analysts' estimates. Additionally, loan growth is expected to further slowdown amid low demand in certain secured products, stress in the unsecured segment, and a high cost to deposit (CD) ratio across the system.
Securitisation - sale of loans to investors - by lenders, including banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), crossed Rs 50,000 crore during the fourth quarter ended March 2025 (Q4F25). This is a tad higher than Rs 48,000 crore during the same period of FY24.
The pace of loan growth among public sector banks (PSBs) has seen a surge in the financial year 2024-25, and this is an exception to the overall moderation in bank credit during FY25. PSU banks' share in incremental credit rose to 57.3 per cent in March from 51.7 per cent a year ago, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Report (April 2025).
Geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainties, volatility in international commodity prices and financial market uncertainties pose considerable risks to India's economic growth in the coming year, the finance ministry cautioned on Wednesday. "Global trade continues to be affected by uncertainty in the policy environment... tariff-related developments in multiple countries have heightened trade-related risks, affecting investment and trade flows globally.
'Indian players in the digital market should not be dominated by global players, and they should not dominate the smaller players -- these discussions are on.'
The gap between credit and deposit growth in the banking system is expected to decline sharply to 80 basis points (bps) in the next financial year from an average of 386 bps over the FY22-Q3FY25 period, according to rating agency India Ratings. This would be against the backdrop of sharp moderation in the incremental loan deposit ratio (LDR) of the Indian banking system to 85 per cent in February 2025 from 117-118 per cent in the same month of 2024.
The gold loan portfolio of banks continued to show strong off-take with 76 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in January 2025 amid moderation in retail credit - especially in the unsecured credit segment - following increase in risk weights in November 2023. The gold loan pool had grown 17.4 per cent Y-o-Y in January 2024.
The Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana-Grameen has the highest unutilised amount (Rs 13,111 crore) compared to any other centrally sponsored scheme.
'I don't know when I will be able to access those funds.'
For the first time, the government is likely to dip into the Oil Industry Development Fund (OIDF) to finance part of its fertiliser subsidy programme for 2025-26, according to official sources. The finance ministry has accounted for Rs 23,000 crore in the FY26 Budget as net additional resources to be drawn from dedicated reserve funds, including the OIDF, the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Fund, and the Universal Service Obligation Fund.
The interest rate on these schemes have remained unchanged for over a year now.
'We are getting to understand the mind of this generation.' 'Minor tweaks are being made to ease the process as we go along.'
'Spend, but create assets, spend but make sure that people benefit from it.' 'This has been a beautiful guiding principle. And I think as a finance minister I owe so much to the prime minister for keeping this path clear before us.'
'Our attempt to honour the taxpayer has been since 2014 and more actively since 2019-2020 onwards.'
'Nearly 10 million people will benefit from the increase in the rebate limit for those earning up to Rs 12 lakh.' 'We expect all that money will come back into the economy in either savings, consumption, or investments.'
This will be the first full-year Budget of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government since it came to power for a third consecutive term in July last year.
The government may save over Rs 70,000 crore (Rs 700 billion) on capital and revenue expenditure allocated towards new schemes in the FY25 Budget that are yet to be implemented.
Raising overseas debt has become prohibitively expensive due to the depreciating rupee.
India Ratings on Thursday said that any broad-based or strong recovery in corporate capital expenditure was unlikely in the upcoming financial year 2026 (FY26) due to uncertainty of domestic and external demand. The uncertainty is adversely affecting the overall corporate sector capex. Interest rates on credit are not the primary deterrent to decisions about capital expenditure, said Soumyajit Niyogi, director, core analytical group, Ind-Ra, in a webinar on the credit market outlook.
The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
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